Several seasons back I made some predictions on the futre of this class, so lets see how I did:
GlennBrett, taking at the top of the draft by Tampa has continued to reward that franchise well. The reigning Cy Young award winner is 74 up to 38 down at he enters his age 29 season with a 1.20 WHIP and 3.08 ERA.
My original projections were: 86-86-80-95-86-79-80-68-64-24-65
In his prime: 85-80-75-94-84-76-76-66-58-27-61
Looks like my back of the napkin projections were pretty accurate, considering he lost a few points here and there a couple of seasons back due to injury. Glenn has established himself as the Ace everyone knew him to be when drafted. Now the key question with a good 6-10 seasons left, can he cross over the 200 win threshold and gain access to the Hall? He'd need to average 16 wins a season over the next 8 years to get there, something that seems highly likely baring a couple of major injuries.
Sam Bowie was once drafted b/w Olajuwon and Jordan in 1984. Season 13's draft had WalterPote. A draft setting mix up, led to Montreal taking Pote b/w two certain aces, not to mention before all the other top level arms in this draft. However, unlike Bowe's Pote's suckiness may have been well over states as a trade to Chicago has turned Pote into a very solid middle of the rotation pitcher, and occasional ace over stretches. Pote made the all star game in season 18, briefly was mention amongst the Cy Young nominees that same season before falling off the nominatin list, and has quietly put together 2+ solid seasons in the show. Over those 2+ seasons, he's 27-13 with a 1.38 WHIP and 4.06 era. Toss out his season 17 season spent mostly in the pen with less than ideal results, and his numbers look even better as a starter.
My original projections were: 65-63-54-46-36-36-71-67-56-57-40
In his prime: 74-81-63-56-39-39-77-72-67-62-44
An early career injury made this one a bit tougher to project, outside of his initial draft scouting projections. Needless to say, he's exceeded most everyone's projections, outside of Chicago who was smart enough to acquire Pote and his outstanding set of pitches.
With the 3rd pick, $11 mil bonus baby, CraigWinston was selected by the bad logos. Now 25 and nearly 3 full season in the who, Winston has lived up to expectations. Two all star selections and a rookie of the year, Winston has been nominated for the Cy Young each of the last two seasons, coming up short in both votes. Having won 19 games each of the last 2 seasons, Craig hopes to push that total over 20 this year in hopes of claiming the so far elusive Cy Young award. Totals to date include a 55-22 win/loss mark, a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.58 era.
My original projections were: 72-88-89-91-30-99-95-86-75-76-0
In his prime: 71-79-81-86-28-96-90-82-67-63-0
A mid season injury last year knocked off a point here and there, but perhaps there's time to recover a bit. None the less, he's going to end up a shade shy of my original projections, but certainly on the level of staff ace. With at least 10+ good season in the tank, he'll need to average 14.5 wins over the next 10 years to top the 200 win mark by the age of 35 and perhaps a good luck at joining the short list of 250+ game winners in this world.
With the 5th pick, Fresno (formerly Arizona) selected LyleHines. Lyle has established himself as a solid front line starter over his two seasons. Despite a sub .500 career record (25-29), Lyle's rate stats would suggest he's due for an all star appearance or 4 down the line. An era around 3.4, and a career WHIP of 1.27 suggests someone that should shot north of .500 on his career record by season's end.
My original projections were: 79-94-61-73-82-83-79-80-52-42-0
In his prime: 71-94-62-74-80-79-80-81-50-38-0
Lyle's outstanding 99 makeup have allowed him to exceed my initials projections in several areas. Lyle has proven his worth above the traditional 5th slot in the draft, and highlights the depth of the pitching class in this draft as he may be only the 4th or 5th best starter drafted in the top 10.
At 6, Boston draft high school lefty BoomerConroy. Now 25, and in his 4th full season in the show, Boomer has been one of the lone bright spots during Boston's recent downturn. Now that the Boston franchise looks to be turning the corner, the brass is expecting Boomer to lead the charge from the front of their rotation. At first glance, Boomer's career 4.94 era looks rather unimpressive, however after examing the team around him, and noticing as his defenders have gotten better, his rate stats have increased each season, it doesn't take long to realize Boomer's still on track for an all star appearance or two in the next decade.
My original projections were: 97-79-65-61-34-70-78-73-52-44-0
In his prime: 95-84-69-66-34-68-86-76-55-46-0
Similar to Lyle Hines, Boomer's outstanding 99 makeup has allowed him to exceed my initial projections in several areas. Both his control and quality of pitches are significantly higher than my initial projections. Boomer will neer be a strike out artist, but its easy to see that he blongs at the top of most rotations and will help Boston back to the top of their division in due time.
Memphis (formerly Texas) selected ChadPride with the 7th selection. Despite being the 6th pitcher taken in this draft, Chad has arguably been the most productive. In his first 3 seasons, Chad has won a gold glove, two all star selections and a Cy Young award in season 18 for the dominate Memphis franchise. 42 career wins to 17 losses, a career 1.11 WHIP and holding opponents to a sub .250 average, its hard to find anything not to like about Pride's start.
My original projections were: 74-86-76-86-99-80-78-71-60-16-0
In his Prime: 68-86-74-86-95-75-77-69-61-16-0
Seems like my projections fell right in line, unfortunately a little short in his less than ideal stamina, but who's going to complain about 6-7 dominate innings every 5th night?
At 8, Minnesota (formerly Portland) irock pulled out HS righty VicPena. It was thought by this scribe that Pena could challenge anyone else in this class as the top arm at the end of the day. Pena started out like a ball of fire, claiming the rookie of the year award during season 16. However, irock's dedication to our country, and lack of full attention to his team helped in the setback's that were Pena's season 17 & 18. A season 19 labrum tear set him back even further and finally, in season 20, he's begining to live up to the expectations he headed upon himself during his rookie of the year campaign 4 seasons ago. A career 4.82 era, 1.40 WHIP and 35-34 record are far worse than were initially expected, however expect a bounce back over the next couple of seasons and a solid #2 type starer.
My original projections were: 87-83-59-78-35-80-84-79-69-32-0
In his Prime: 84-83-59-81-34-83-82-78-69-30-0
I originally wrote that I thought his lack of development by the owner running things while irock was in basic would set my intial projections a little shy of where his peak actually was. throw in the labrum tear, and I think that holds true, but despite it all, he ended up remarkably close to what I originally thought he'd be.
The 8th starter, BootsGonzales was selected by Cleveland with the 9th pick in season 13. Similar to the Browns, Boots was eventually traded to Balitmore to find more fertile soil. Boots has bounced back and forth b/w AAA and the majors the last couple of seasons, before finally settling for good in the show last year with a 3.09 era over 28 starts. To date, Boots is 14-17 with a 1.21 WHIP and 3.23 era while holding opponents to a stellar .231 average.
My original projections were: 70-87-61-66-91-69-82-63-43-37-0
In his prime: 69-87-67-71-88-67-83-62-42-33-0
Boots has exceeded my orginally less than ideal splits to end up with splits more acceptable to go with his outstanding velocity & changeup. Baltimore is starting to show signs of life, and Boots is at the forefront. Could another all star be added to this class?
Boots was the last of my projection projects, and have proven to be fairly accurate, though definently not perfect. However, beyond those 8 starters drafted in the top 10, there have several other pitchers of note in this class, who are providing value to their current teams:
HaroldAspromonte has won the firerman of the year award once, as well as 2 all star selctions.
JeffAusmus has been stellar for Omaha (now Syracuse) made the all star team in season 17 while continually posting stellar starts for the former #14 selection.
DennyYoshii, the 17th pick, made the all star team in Pittsburgh last year, as well as help Pittsburgh to the World Seriers and an NL pennant.
And that doesn't even include a handful of stellar bats from this draft. The pitching class of season 13 has certainly lived up to its billing. Time will tell how many of these starters will eventually land in the hall of fame. Looks like 3-4 strong possibilities, and perhaps some time for a couple more to jump into the conversation.